I see that Central Catholic swept New Trier and St. Ignatius at the Rustbelt Championships. Central will race LaSalle in a dual meet on 4/12 in York PA and SJP, STA and Gonzaga will meet at St. Andrew's that same weekend. We should know a lot more about how everyone stacks up, early in the season, by the 12th.
It is still 6 weeks until Stotesbury, so a lot will change as the top teams seat race, tweek their lineups, and start to peak but a few teams had strong weekends. SJP handled previously unbeaten LaSalle at Manny Flicks in the 1V8 and LWT8 races, Central Catholic handled Chaminade and St. Augustine's in Noxontown, and Gonzaga handled TJ on the Anacostia. There were only partial results posted for St. Albans, but what was posted looked predictably good. With SJP, STA and Gonzaga in Noxontown and LaSalle and CC meeting in York PA next Saturday should be an awesome day of racing. I can't wait to see how things shake out.
Some nice results this weekend, seems that SJP really got it together this weekend by beating LaSalle by 5s in the Varsity 8. Wasn't really expecting any less from CC and Gonzaga, but seeing as CC doesn't go to Stotes, here's what I think how it will play out.
These are only based on the results I've seen. Teams I think need to be considered are Winter Park, Albans, the Canadian teams, and Brunswick if they decide to come down, since it looks like their doing well so far. You can probably throw in CC though in the top 6 for SRAA's.
L8 1. SJP 2. LaSalle 3. Radnor 4. St. Augustine 5. Ocean City 6. Christian Bros
These are just based off PSRA results, mainly Sunday's, I haven't seen many other L8's go out yet. Gonzaga might roll one out since they got 5th last year, and maybe Jesuit Prep as well who got 2nd.
JV8 1. Ocean City 2. LaSalle 3. SJP 4. Gonzaga 5. Don Bosco 6. Haddonfield
Something about rowing together for the second year in a row. I think Ocean City will fair pretty well.
I am going to try to head down to Saint Andrew's tomorrow to take in the Regatta. I wish I could be at the CC- LaSalle Regatta too, but I can only make it to one. I will make my preliminary Stotes predictions after this weekend, with the right to amend them after Gonzaga and CC race on the 26th...
Sat on the hill on the St. Andrew's side of the pond and saw the good, the bad and the ugly at Noxontown#3.
The Good: Gonzaga's 1V8 looked liked they steadily powered away from a very good SJP boat in the main event and won by ~4 seconds. Gonzaga's 2V8 looked good too, though they are still waiting to get tested this year. I think that CC will provide that for them on the 27th. SJP's LWT8 got pushed by Gonzaga's LWT8 for about 1100 meters before Gonzaga's higher rating caught up with them and SJP sprinted away to another impressive ~7 second win. It was good to see Dallas Jesuit racing. While they are not in the Gonzaga/ SJP class, their boats represented well and were competitive.
The Bad: St. Alban's 1V8 and 2V8 crashed during warm-ups and neither boat got to race. The boats looked like they received some damage and a few of the kids looked bruised and scratched. I was bummed not to get to see them race. I think that both boats would have tested (or possibly bested) Gonzaga and SJP. But I felt worse for the rowers. STA has had a tough Spring with the previous regatta called because of high winds and then they crashed out of this one before it even started. Does anyone know how the boats and the rowers are doing? They are such a fast and classy team, I hope that everything and everyone is OK.
The ugly: Bonner. Their 1V8 time would have finished 4th in the 1F race. They need to find a different week if they want to go to St. Andrew's.
It is Easter weekend so I doubt there will be any big races this weekend. But next weekend will be great for racing with the Philadelphia Catholic League Championships, Charlie Butt in VA, The Garden State's Championships in NJ and Gonzaga vs. Central Catholic in PA. Not sure which one I will be at yet.
Turns out there were some good races on Saturday. At Lenape LaSalle nipped St. Augustine in the 1V8, but were pipped by St. Augustines and Chaminade in the 2V8. LaSalle won the LWT8, as expected. STA raced BCC on the Potomac and beat them in the 1V8 by a nice margin (8.5 secs) but were less impressive in winning the 2V8 by just 2.2 secs. I will update my rankings soon...
Another weekend and the picture for Stotes is only a little bit clearer. Gonzaga's 1V8 won a close race with CC. Gonzaga's 2V8 and 3V8 (LWT) dominated their CC counterparts. SJP beat LaSalle by comfortable margins in the 1V8 and LWT races at the PCL Championships. STA looked decent in their Semi-Final Heat at Charlie Butt but the Finals were cancelled due to high winds. So, STA hasn't raced in a Final's heat yet this year. They face Gonzaga in the Foley's Cup this Saturday and we will finally get a measure of how good they are this Spring. In the NJ Championships Holy Spirit nipped a clearly improving Montclair in the 1V8 finals and HS beat Moorestown and Mainland in the 2V8 finals. Ocean City beat Christian Bros in the LWT8 finals. In the FSRA Championships Winter Park showed well (3rd) in the 1V8 and (2nd) 2V8 finals and Belen won the LWT8 and Jr8 titles. So here are my current predictions for Stotesbury:
1V8: Gonzaga SJP WP LaSalle STA TC Williams
2V8: Gonzaga Winter Park LaSalle STA Holy Spirit Moorestown
LWT8: SJP Gonzaga LaSalle Belen Ocean City Woodson
I didn't know Woodson was racing a light 8+ this year. I've only seen them put out heavy boats...
I wouldn't put WP that high. They were 7 seconds off Sarasota Crew. Not a close enough margin to warrant a 3rd place spot in your rankings, but maybe high enough to sneak into the finals.
STA is having a pretty rough year. Two wind cancellations, and a collision that fortunately ended in only boat repairs. I suspect this STA crew could be a sleeper for winning. They had two boys almost break 6K for the 20 min pull at Mid-Atlantics back in early February. Lots of horse power.
Tough to bank on any other crews from VASRA making noise at Stotes or SRAAs with several days and weeks of school cancellations due to the winter weather this year.
The Woodson LWT slot was based on some rumors that I have heard, a good coach, and a dearth of fast LWT8s after the first handful of boats. Someone always surprises with a LWT8 or a Jr8 line-up at Stotes that hadn't raced together in prior regattas but has talent. Woodson might fit that bill.
I have no idea what to expect from STA. I agree that they look to have horsepower based on erg scores, but the heats that they have run this year have been unimpressive. Not unusual for them since they are smart enough to just do what is required to win their heat and save energy for the final. They race Gonzaga on Saturday afternoon on the Potomac (their home course), so we will know a lot more about them pretty soon. Hopefully the conditions will be good and the race a true measure of where both teams are. Gonzaga won against a great CC 1V8 crew last Saturday in a blazing time, but never really looked settled rowing with the relatively strong tail wind- so maybe they are still trying to find their rhythm and are beatable. If so, that would shake things up going into Stotes.
I debated WP, and I would be comfortable dropping them to #5 and moving LaSalle and STA up. I will have a better measure of STA and LaSalle after the Foley Cup and the PCRC regattas this weekend.
The Potomac is looking like it will be about 10 feet up by Saturday afternoon; chances are slim anyone on the Potomac will see water time until Monday after tonight. Hopefully the VA states final will run so the Stotes semi isn't their first 1500 in anger this year.
Nosebleedsection: I agree 100% with your Philly Champs predictions, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Montclair and HS change places.
Rowingpun: This rain is intense and I agree that no one will be rowing on the Potomac this weekend. The word on the street is that the Foley Cup race between STA and Gonzaga will likely be moved to the Anacostia, which should be row-able, Saturday afternoon. I hope so. STA needs to get some good racing in ahead of Stotes, as do some of the other VASRA team.