NEIRA 2013

[JCrew]

http://www.row2k.com/results/resultspag ... Y7gGugnrGQ

Did anyone see this coming? Tabor (4:43.6) > Exeter (4:44.2) > Andover (4:51.2)

1 week of racing left and, as usual, plenty of conflicting results in the NEIRA which will make the seedings committee's job difficult (most recent results at the top):

5/11-5/12:
Tabor > Exeter > Andover
Kent > Brunswick > Salisbury

5/4-5/5:
Andover > SPS

4/27-4/28:
Andover > BC > Salisbury
Exeter > Kent > SPS
Tabor > Brunswick

4/20-4/21:
Exeter > Brookline > Andover
BC > SPS > Tabor

4/13-4/14:
Kent > Andover
Brunswick > Salisbury

4/6-4/7:
Brunswick > Tabor

[Battlepaddle]

andover #1 all the way

[The last oar bender]

You can not seriously be putting Tabor in 2nd place. They have had one good race this entire season. I still think that Kent is faster than Tabor even though compared to years past Kent is awful. Wick will down Andover in the Grand Final.

Predictions:

Exeter
BCH
Kent
Tabor
Brunswick by a bow ball
Andover

Oar Bender out.

[JCrew]

Oar Bender, I'm pretty sure that Battlepaddle was predicting the seedings, not the results. And based on the season so far, his predictions seem reasonable (but not assured). Still some races left that will affect seedings: Exeter v SPS and BC v Kent.

Here are my SEEDINGS as of today:

Tabor
Exeter
Andover
BC
Kent
Brunswick

(if Kent beats BC next weekend, then Kent jumps BC and Andover to #3 seed).

[The last oar bender]

I disagree with these seedings. Tabor is not faster than Exeter, and Andover is not as slow as we think. While I was at the Merrimack yesterday I saw Exeter catch a crab during the race. Also throughout the whole race Exeter cut off Andover, and Exeter's puddles were slowing down the mermaids. After one of my agents reported the results of the Kent Invitational, I have decided to redo my seedings.

After conferring with my advisors, we have agreed on these places if NEIRAs were to happen at this second:
1) Exeter – They are starting to peak. Five and Six seat have just been diagnosed with heart disease, and we can expect a couple of lineup changes to account for that.
2) BCH- Somewhat of a dark horse. They did not have a race this weekend so it is hard to judge their speed. It seems their big kid is unlikely to return. But BCH is remaining fast without him.
3) Tabor- Getting there. Started off slow, but you have to give it to their head coach for turning this team around.
4) Kent- Losing it… on second thought, they never had it. Early favorite, but I guess getting on the water two months before everyone else did not help.
5) Brunswick- Unlike the whole NEIRA blog, I respect Wick. These guys have a chance to upset Kent, but do not have enough juice to get on the podium. These guys are a lock for 4th or 5th.
6) Andover- These big boys are just slumping after their big W last year. Could potentially surprise?

My agents and I will be watching Exeter practice on Monday and BCH on Tuesday. I am omnipresent and omnipotent. Oar Bender out.

[Portside]

Here is yet another year where the Eights schools rule the web pages, yet Belmont Hill (The Eights program posing as a Fours school)
rules the water. Another 'down year' for NEIRA eights ? Another clean sweep for BelHill. Henley this year for BelHill ?

[JCrew]

Tabor is not faster than Exeter

Results from 24 hours ago seem to differ - last I checked Tabor (4:43.6) beat Exeter (4:44.2) http://www.row2k.com/results/resultspag ... Y_8K-gnrGQ

No matter if there was a crab, bad steering, you dont think Tabor is faster, or anything else, this is the result which stands and which the seeding committee will use. According to the NEIRA seeding guidelines: "more recent races are more important than older races" and "a race cannot be thrown out because of additional information (i.e. crew was without a key member, crew did not handle the water well, crew caught a crab, etc)".

So, that's why I think Tabor will get the #1 seed. Do you have any reasoning for seeding Exeter #1 and BC (who you call a darkhorse despite seeding them second) ahead of Tabor beyond your own feelings? And if you say "Andover is not as slow as we think" then why do you have them finishing 6th?

[The last oar bender]

Ok, "JCREW" this is how I see it. Even though, "more recent races are more important than older races" you cannot discount every single one of Tabor's losses. I obviously agree with you that they are gaining speed, but there is no way a seeding committee is going to give a team with a losing record a higher seed than a team with a winning record. With that in mind, Exeter has had a great season, with only one, one second loss. Therefore, Exeter will be ranked number one. I think BCH is a dark horse simply because we do not know what they are capable of doing. Their last important race was a split second loss to Andover, but they also have a winning record and will be seeded higher than Tabor. And let us not be too quick to forget Exeter posting at least six second Ws against every team they have raced. And JCrew by the way, if you read my post, you would’ve seen I ranked the top six based on how they would perform at NEIRAs right this second. Andover has plenty of time to gain speed. Your seeding philosophy makes as little sense as your taste in fashion… JCrew, really? Sixth graders wear that brand as part of a school uniform. Oh, let me slip into my wrinkled khakis and awkwardly sized polo. Oh, the nostalgia. It is time to stop buying off the rack.

By the way, one of my agents has been forcefully retired. He was using unorthodox methods to extract top secret NEIRA information. I will be holding interviews for the next week. Please inbox me with questions.

I am omnipresent and omnipotent, and very tired of this ardent pedantry. Oar Bender out.

[fatatatim]

BC High is currently seeded 6th.

Fatatatim out

[JCrew]

I ranked the top six based on how they would perform at NEIRAs right this second

My mistake, I thought you were predicting the seedings for NEIRA, not the results. That seems to be the primary problem here, Battlepaddle and I are predicting the seedings for NEIRA while you are predicting the results. I got confused when you said "I have decided to redo my seedings" a few posts ago.

there is no way a seeding committee is going to give a team with a losing record [Tabor] a higher seed than a team with a winning record [Exeter]

Tabor is in fact 10-3 with 1 race to go. Even if you remove Pomfret (a 4s schools who raced in 8s against Tabor early in the year) and only count those school who Tabor has faced which are considered to have a chance at finishing in the Grands or Petites at NEIRAs (Brunswick, St Johns, Simsbury, BC, SPS, NMH, Exeter, & Andover), Tabor is 6-3 ... hardly a losing record.

And let us not be too quick to forget Exeter posting at least six second Ws against every team they have raced

Except of course the most recent team they raced, Tabor. You seem to continually leave that race out of the conversation.

[JCrew]

Last oar bender, based on some of your comments and your reasoning, I've gone back over the results from the year and, after giving things a more thorough look, I've adjusted my predicted SEEDINGS:

1. Tabor (9-3 in NEIRA, beat Exeter a week ago, losses to Brunswick, BC, and SPS)
2. Exeter (10-1 in NEIRA, only loss is to Tabor, has beaten Kent, Andover twice, and Brookline)
3. Kent (8-1 in NEIRA, only loss is to Exeter, has beaten Andover and Brunswick, races BC on Sat)
4. BC (4-1 in NEIRA, beat Tabor, lost to Andover, races Kent on Sat)
5. Brunswick (9-2 in NEIRA, 1-1 versus Tabor, other loss is to Kent)
6. Andover/Brookline - Andover (7-5 in NEIRA, beat BC, lost to Exeter twice, Kent, Tabor, and Brookline) has the tougher schedule but Brookline (12-2 in NEIRA, lost to Exeter, beat Andover) beat them early in the year

(I left out non-NEIRA results so dont jump all over me and say something like "Kent has way more than 1 loss", I know they've lost several non-NEIRA races but those arent in consideration here)


And just for the heck of it, here are my predictions for the RESULTS on the 25th:

1. Exeter
2. Tabor
3. Kent
4. Andover
5. BC
6. Brunswick

[JCrew]

Week 7 racing, last week before NEIRAs:

Racing Schedule (week of 5/13 - 5/19)

Belmont v St. Mark’s (@ Belmont) – 5/15
Berkshire v Canterbury v Gunnery v Taft (@ Gunnery) – 5/15
Concord v St. Paul’s (@ SPS) – 5/15
Hanover v NMH (@ Hanover) – 5/15

Andover v Hingham v NHM (@ NMH) – 5/18
BB&N v Brooks v Thayer (@ Brooks) – 5/18
BC High v Kent (@ Kent) – 5/18
Berkshire v Canterbury v Dexter v Southfield (@ Berkshire) – 5/18
Chase v Middlesex v Pomfret v Worcester (@ Pomfret) – 5/18
Choate v Deerfield v Gunnery (@ Waramaug) – 5/18
Exeter v St Pauls (@ SPS) – 5/18
Groton v Nobles (@ Groton) – 5/18
Hanover v Tabor (@ Hanover) – 5/18
Salisbury v St Johns (@ Salisbury) – 5/18

CT Public School Rowing Championships: Avon v E Lyme v EO Smith v Farmington v Glastonbury v Guilford v Lewis Mills v Litchfield v L/O Lyme v Middletown v Simsbury v Stonington v (@ Waramaug) – 5/19

Stotesbury Cup: Brunswick v practically every non-NEIRA east coast school (@ Philly) – 5/17-18

USRowing Northeast Junior District Championships: Albany v Arlington-Belmont v Cape Cod v Central v CRI v Essex v Greenwich v Lawrence v Lowell v Northampton v RowAmerica Rye v Saugatuck v Westford Littleton (@ Lowell) – 5/18-19

[Portside]

Most meaningful NEIRA races of the weekend: BC High vs Kent in eights; Deerfield vs Choate in fours. And, of course, BelHill, the eights program posing as a fours school, vs St. Marks. No one currently alive will remember the last time BelHill did not win this race.

[The last oar bender]

Does anyone have any predictions for this weekend of racing? Oar Bender out.

[JCrew]

Does anyone have any predictions for this weekend of racing?

It's Friday and I'm bored so here goes:

Andover > Hingham > NHM
Kent > BC
Exeter > St Paul’s
Tabor > Hanover
St John’s > Salisbury

BB&N > Brooks > Thayer
Dexter > Berkshire > Canterbury > Southfield
Middlesex > Chase > Worcester > Pomfret
Choate > Deerfield > Gunnery
Groton > Nobles

CT Public School Rowing Championships Gold: Simsbury, Silver: L/O Lyme, Bronze: Glastonbury

Stotesbury Cup G: Gonzaga, S: Winter Park, B: SJP, Brunswick doesn't qualify for the Grands

USRowing Northeast Junior District Championships G: CRI, S: Saugatuck, B: Essex