COVID-19 thread

[lt.wolf]

We get it platypus, Australia handled it better than the USA.

[oldman]

There are some good results in the USA. In the last 7 days we had 15,253 tests with 12 positives. They go into isolation and anyone traced to them is quarantined. The 12 is the highest it has been since we started at the beginning of August on all 4 campuses. It can be done here where there's testing, tracing, and masks.

[fullmetal]

The countries that have done well with covid have been brutally tough in this regard. China, south Korea etc.

Australia and New Zealand have been tough. China was brutal straight up--welding doors shut and leaving people to die apart from medical care were implied by some of the citizen reported videos that leaked out.

Taiwan and South Korea seem to have done well while being fairly cushy, although South Korea has had its share of mini-waves. (I'm not counting Singapore; they're lucky they're so small...)

It is entirely possible to deal with this well if your population accepts masks and distancing as the cost of normal life. And once the vaccine is here and the virus all but gone, the masks and distancing will be gone as well.

[Cowbells123]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/spor ... DqMFDkujJA

[fullmetal]

It's a somewhat unique situation as only one positive test has been recorded thus far. Berkeley Public Health municipal guidelines required all close contacts (the entire position group) to quarantine at home for 14 days regardless of potential future negative tests. This is one of the stricter protocols I've seen. An hour south in Santa Clara, an NFL game was played where one team had four players out due to covid. Apparently Cal-UW would have proceeded on schedule under any other municipal/county guidelines except Berkeley Public Health.

The position group was deduced to be the entire DL, one of three sine qua non positions that, if affected, could be used to request a no-contest from the Pac-12 league. The other two positions are QB and DL.

[lt.wolf]

Vaccine pending

[caustic]

Vaccine pending

Well, that's just the Pfizer one, if you're talking about the mRNA based vaccine that, in preliminary results, was found to protect 90% of recipients from contracting the virus. IIRC, there's another strong candidate from AstraZenaca that's also in the same level of testing.

'But, don't think we'll be ready for spring racing season. it takes time to manufacture and distribute vaccines. we *Might* have a fall season next year. But I wouldn't put money on much, if any, spring racing.

And as an update, we're at 243K deaths in the US. In a strange quirk of timing, an apropos comparison - that's over double the total number of US deaths in WWI.

We should be over 250K by mid next week. And likely over 300K by end of year. And likely 400K by April.

[sandor]

Vaccine pending

Well, that's just the Pfizer one, if you're talking about the mRNA based vaccine that, in preliminary results, was found to protect 90% of recipients from contracting the virus. IIRC, there's another strong candidate from AstraZenaca that's also in the same level of testing.

'But, don't think we'll be ready for spring racing season. it takes time to manufacture and distribute vaccines. we *Might* have a fall season next year. But I wouldn't put money on much, if any, spring racing.

And as an update, we're at 243K deaths in the US. In a strange quirk of timing, an apropos comparison - that's over double the total number of US deaths in WWI.

We should be over 250K by mid next week. And likely over 300K by end of year. And likely 400K by April.

If Rite Aid & CVS handle the US vaccination, as was insinuated, that is about 35,000 injections per store (assuming the 2-injection inoculations)

Per store (approx 20,000 in the US)
90 shots per hour
12 hours a day
7 days a week
for 30 days.

Let's look back to '55 & learn from the problems, antithetical ideas & workable solution of the last wide-scale development & distribution of a virus vaccine.

1ea9d795-528b-434a-a08b-382498a19946_l.jpg (76.5 KiB) Viewed 1244 times

[lt.wolf]

We may have a different type of spring , I would expect summer and fall to be normal.

Definitely no one should be not to compete ( or spectate ) without a vaccine, should be a mandate by US Rowing

[KitD]

I wonder where Olympic athletes sit on the vaccine priority list.

[lt.wolf]

Likely near the top , not first round but second or third.

[fullmetal]

All the first, second, and third round recipients of the vaccine will be closely monitored for effectiveness as well. I feel like I can trust the data, and yet on top of that, I know that the initial recipients of the vaccine are also guinea pigs, in a sense. Fingers crossed.

[lt.wolf]

Cue up the anti-vaxxers...

[sandor]

All the first, second, and third round recipients of the vaccine will be closely monitored for effectiveness as well. I feel like I can trust the data, and yet on top of that, I know that the initial recipients of the vaccine are also guinea pigs, in a sense. Fingers crossed.

Only in the fact that when you scale up rare side effects to a treatment cohort 10,000+ larger than the phase three trials, there will be 10,000x people reporting them.

I think the transport, storage & administration will be a bigger issue -

can we get enough vehicles to deliver vaccinations stored @ -70 C
are there enough -70C freezers to store them at said temp, people able to thaw & dilute the vaccine for administration, etc.
we get our -30C freezers pretty readily, the -70/-80 ones had a long lead time back in the "normal" days (tumor storage, cancer drug storage)


We will 100% see a dramatic increase in absolutions # of side effects.
That is a mathematical given.

I'm worried that the US (and the whole world, to an extent) has a shite plan for distribution that will slow down the whole show at the cost of (more) human lives.

[rowing]

Likely near the top , not first round but second or third.

Yes, let’s put people who get paid to exercise for a two week event every four years at the top of the list

At risk population
Elderly
Essential workers
First responders
Healthcare workers
Military
Critical government positions
Anyone with contact with any of the above
The rich and connected (have to assume)

Athletes will be way below all of these, as they should be. We don’t need them or the Olympics. It’s a nice to have thing if you can coordinate and afford it. We have a lot of essential things to get online first- business, back to work, healthy, etc