2023 Strength of Schedule

[gamestop]

Did some analysis on strength of schedule based on IRA V8 '22 finish, and opponents '22 finish. I looked at upcoming regular season opponents starting March 25th, here's what I found:

Brown, BU, and Harvard have the highest average opponent strength. Brown, the top spot, has an average opponent finish of 7th at the '22 IRA, where they were 3rd, so they are really only racing comparable, very fast programs.

BU, Columbia, and OSU rank the highest in terms of relative strength of schedule (difference between their finish and their average opponent finish). Which makes sense - Columbia was (is?) slow and races Yale/Princeton. OSU has the (mis)fortune of racing Cal/UW. And BU had a down year finishing 14th, but will still line up against Cal, Brown, Cuse, among others this year.

Lowest average opponent strength goes to Drexel, MIT, and Marist with the weakest. Marist and MIT don't punch above their weight much but they do match their average opponent rank almost exactly with their own ranking from last year.

Lowest relative strength of schedule are Cal, 'Cuse, and Yale. When you're top of the mountain it's hard to find consistent competition on par with you to keep your schedule tough, but these programs have a pretty sizeable gulf between them and some of their opponents.

My 'true bravery' award goes to the fastest program with the toughest sched (a top 6 finish from last year with strongest relative schedule), which is Harvard. Harvard is fast, but their schedule will still really push them. My 'are we brave or stupid' award goest to the slowest program with the toughest schedule (18 or worst finish with strongest relative schedule), and that is Columbia. Terhaar has his work cut out for him.

My 'we're not cowards we're just fast' award (top 6 with weakest relative schedule) goes to Cal. Hard to fault them but lining up against UCSD and OSU really does nothing for their schedule.

And speaking of Drexel, my 'true coward' award (an 18 or worst finish with weakest relative schedule) goes to...Drexel. Their average opponent rank is 20th despite finishing 16th last year. They tend to only test themselves against Philly area programs, and slower ones at that. Their recent trip out west would help them a bit if included, but not by much. So c'mon Drexel, don't just duke it out with whoever shows up to the Schuylkill or the Cooper.

If anyone wants to see the (likely flawed) data, send me a message.

[Faster-n-faster]

Brown certainly has just about the toughest schedule. I’d add in NU this year. It’s a pretty good one.

Penn
PAC-12 invite Cal/Stanford (could race ‘cuse here but ‘cuse is too scared about their rankings to let it happen) also raced Washington last year.
BU
Harvard
Brown
Wisconsin

[str8four]

Did some analysis on strength of schedule based on IRA V8 '22 finish, and opponents '22 finish. I looked at upcoming regular season opponents starting March 25th, here's what I found:

Nice work gamestop, but I wouldn't be too quick to judge teams based upon their SOS from one year to the next. The reason is that many of these spring cup races predate the vast majority of college athletics. An up-and-coming program can't just invite themselves along for the party.

The Childs Cup between Penn, Princeton, and Columbia started in 1879. While you may see the occasional guest entry over the 140+ years of the event, crews can't just show up and race. Columbia finished last (or didn't enter) from 1964 - 2007 but Penn and Princeton didn't "vote them off the island." In many cases the traditions themselves matter more than how competitive this year's race will be.

Drexel, Temple, UCSD, Gonzaga, and Georgetown can't get into cup races like Childs, Blackwell, Compton, Stein, Carnegie, Schoch, etc. And crews like Navy, BU or Syracuse also have a traditional schedule of weekly cup races held on the same weekend every year for the last 50+ years. In the last 5 years I am sure that SJU, Drexel, Temple, and LaSalle would have loved to have Penn race with them for the "Philly crown." But Penn already has 5 traditional cup races scheduled between the end of March and April against traditionally better competition (NE, Yale, Columbia, Princeton, Harvard, Navy, and Cornell). Unless Drexel or Temple start making the Grand Final at IRAs, what incentive does Penn's coach have for taking that race?

Lastly, money talks. It is not easy to justify the costs of a series of long distance trips for these kids who are real student-athletes (unlike some NIL sponsored NCAA football and basketball guys). Wisco might blow a cool $1 million on a trip to the Rose Bowl for a particularly good football season, but Chris Clarke needs to watch his travel budget when there aren't that many competitive crews within a few hundred miles. Part of the reason BU can fly out to Wisco every other year is that most other races (NE, Harv, Brown, Dart, Syr and EARC Sprints) cost very little to attend.

[FriarsRowing]

Did some analysis on strength of schedule based on IRA V8 '22 finish, and opponents '22 finish. I looked at upcoming regular season opponents starting March 25th, here's what I found:

Nice work gamestop, but I wouldn't be too quick to judge teams based upon their SOS from one year to the next. The reason is that many of these spring cup races predate the vast majority of college athletics. An up-and-coming program can't just invite themselves along for the party.

The Childs Cup between Penn, Princeton, and Columbia started in 1879. While you may see the occasional guest entry over the 140+ years of the event, crews can't just show up and race. Columbia finished last (or didn't enter) from 1964 - 2007 but Penn and Princeton didn't "vote them off the island." In many cases the traditions themselves matter more than how competitive this year's race will be.

Drexel, Temple, UCSD, Gonzaga, and Georgetown can't get into cup races like Childs, Blackwell, Compton, Stein, Carnegie, Schoch, etc. And crews like Navy, BU or Syracuse also have a traditional schedule of weekly cup races held on the same weekend every year for the last 50+ years. In the last 5 years I am sure that SJU, Drexel, Temple, and LaSalle would have loved to have Penn race with them for the "Philly crown." But Penn already has 5 traditional cup races scheduled between the end of March and April against traditionally better competition (NE, Yale, Columbia, Princeton, Harvard, Navy, and Cornell). Unless Drexel or Temple start making the Grand Final at IRAs, what incentive does Penn's coach have for taking that race?

Lastly, money talks. It is not easy to justify the costs of a series of long distance trips for these kids who are real student-athletes (unlike some NIL sponsored NCAA football and basketball guys). Wisco might blow a cool $1 million on a trip to the Rose Bowl for a particularly good football season, but Chris Clarke needs to watch his travel budget when there aren't that many competitive crews within a few hundred miles. Part of the reason BU can fly out to Wisco every other year is that most other races (NE, Harv, Brown, Dart, Syr and EARC Sprints) cost very little to attend.

Very good points. Maybe the cup system should change if Men's collegiate rowing s going to survive/thrive in the future? The more I feel "we operate in our own world" vs lets get with the times I think it's a slow death. IRA is great and all but it's still our little niche club. Let's think bigger. In my opinion.

[gamestop]

I appreciate the context, I'm well aware these cup races happen whether they are good or bad for the teams involved. However, we can't let coaches off the hook entirely. Many get creative when they realize they are trying to make a leap, trying to change team culture, etc.

Somewhere in the mid 2010's, Columbia added Dartmouth to their schedule for a hot second to beef up their early season schedule, but only lasted a year or two. Cuse and BU used to have Columbia on their schedule, each a cup race, and they dropped it at some point in the last 5 years. I don't know who the decision makers were there, but Cuse and BU now go out West fairly regualrly.

Despite me giving Drexel a hard time, they actually did make a recent change and started going to the Princeton/Georgetown race, I think back in 2018. Which serves Drexel better than yet another early season race with SJU/Temple/LaSalle.

And you lost me with the UPenn example - Penn was nearly beaten by both of those programs on different occasions recently. Drexel/Temple are way closer to UPenn than UPenn is to Yale/Princeton/Harvard/Northeastern. So why wouldn't UPenn race them? Could be their sched is packed already sure, or it could be it would only serve to hurt UPenn in ranking, or in ego.

It also seems the weekend prior to Sprints/Pac12's/Vails are empty of racing for almost every program, which was not always the case. And it makes sense from a training standpoint, but if your schedule is soft and your last hard/close/tough race was a full month prior, maybe finding someone to line up with that weekend isn't a bad thing?

So yes its resource dependent and tradition drives much of it, but I think coaches would be better served to treat their schedules as fluid as possible. And I think a lot of the gamesmanship of keeping cards close to the vest, protecting athlete/coach egos, and making training/physio choices, can get in the way of seeing the value in finding someone to line up with and get after it.

[crewu]

Wisco should definitely get out of the cup business and take a more independent Notre Dame football approach.

But if Clark is watching his budget, why blow even some of it opening your season in Marietta, OH?

The San Diego Crew Classic would have been a perfect opening for Wisconsin this year against Oxford Brookes, Cal, and Canada. Visibility in front of hundreds of top high school recruits. So what if you are last. You are associated with the big boys. But instead....Marietta? OK.

[socalstroke]

Marietta is relatively close/cheap for Wisco. Why would they go to SD when they are already slated to go to redwood shores a couple weeks later every year? It's the odd year when a crew like Brookes shows up.


Eastern crews can open up their schedules by working cups races into other events, which is slowly becoming more common. YAL/BRO are headed to Florida with UW. NU/PEN have raced on the west coast a couple times. PEN/COR have worked OSU, and now HC, into Madeira.

[haveoarwillrow]

Don't forget, Myhr is a Wisco guy that coached with Clark. Sometimes these coaching relationships influence the schedule and are a bit more of a driver than what meets the eye on paper. Penn inviting HC to Madeira -> Monte was an HC alum/Barr rowed under Monte at Vesper, probably a bit of a driver there, too. Combination of throwing each other a bone and they may think it's mutually beneficial or net neutral, Wisco scrimmages MSOE and UMinn a fair amount, too.

I think that introduction of the AARC could be a good first step to brokering some of those changes at a scheduling level. It may come at the expense of some other events (e.g., Murphy Cup, Knecht Cup), but can't hurt to get more match-ups outside the same-old, same-old and that may start to open up more EARC cups being opened up.

[str8four]

Sometimes these coaching relationships influence the schedule

Excellent point as it happens a lot. Columbia is the only varsity program not to eliminate their traditional cup race with Rutgers after the Scarlet Knights got demoted to club status, largely because of coaching relationships. Princeton, Syracuse, BU and Dartmouth all kicked Rutgers to the curb.

Maybe the cup system should change if Men's collegiate rowing s going to survive/thrive in the future? The more I feel "we operate in our own world" vs lets get with the times I think it's a slow death. IRA is great and all but it's still our little niche club. Let's think bigger.

I understand the hope being expressed here but think you'd be trading too much for very little gain. Title IX enforcement and women's rowing going NCAA to help its expansion in the late 90's was a big success story because the sport took advantage of an opportunity. The NCAA (as it is currently constructed) and its interaction with Title IX are DISADVANTAGES for men's collegiate rowing (going back to the early 90's).

With any luck the NIL stuff will blow-up the NCAA and get at least football off the books as an amateur sport. Once they make the distinction between semi-pro REVENUE sports associated with a college, and varsity sports that advance the charitable educational purposes of student-athletes, men's rowing, other olympics sports, and even newer "club" sports like Mountain Biking, Rock Climbing, etc. will have an opportunity for growth. At that point it might be worth it to give up a traditional cup season schedule, or extend invites to a broader group of programs looking to grow. Until then, I don't blame a Penn for avoiding Drexel and Temple during the regular season. There is nothing to gain and something to lose.

[fullmetal]

When the deep-pocketed alumni stop enforcing/insisting on the traditional cup race schedule, you'll see a move away from the cup race schedule as-is. Combining the cup races of several programs into one or more two-day regattas (a la round robin duals) seems like a good compromise to me. And the coaches get to run their lineups through 3-4 races each over the course of the weekend.